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January kicked off with a major milestone: for the first time in five years, the average selling price in the GTA has dropped below $1 million, signalling a definitive shift in market power.
🔍 By the Numbers: January at a Glance
Total Sales: 3,082 (–19.3% YoY, –0.11% MoM)
Average Selling Price: $973,289 (–6.5% YoY, –8.8% MoM)
Active Listings: 17,975 (+8.1% YoY, +16.8% MoM)
Days on Market:
Property DOM: 67 days (Properties that are terminated and relisted)
Listing DOM: 45 days (Average time for a fresh listing to sell)
Months of Inventory: 5.83 months — A firm Buyer's Market across all home types.
🧠 Top Takeaway
The "Million Dollar Floor" has finally cracked. With inventory surging and average prices sitting at five-year lows, January has set the stage for a year where buyers have the upper hand, more choice, and the strongest negotiating power we’ve seen since 2021.
What's happening locally? Durham Region Market Insights
Every city and town is unique. While the broader GTA is leaning heavily into buyer territory, some suburban pockets remain more resilient.
🏘 Segment Performance
Condos
~ 27.8% of total sales
Average Price: $604,759
7.79 months of supply → Firm Buyer’s Market.
Detached Homes
~ 43.9% of total sales
Average Price: $1,277,915
5.58 months of supply → Buyer’s Market.
Durham Region
412 Sales | Average Price: $818,694
3.6 months of inventory → Balanced conditions. Durham remains a standout for better seller conditions compared to the overall GTA.
City of Toronto
6.49 months of inventory → Buyer’s Market. Supply continues to outpace demand in the 416.
🏦 Economic & Financing Context
The Bank of Canada held the policy rate at 2.25% on January 28, marking a second consecutive pause.
Borrowers are seeing continued relief, with the next rate announcement scheduled for March 18, 2026.
Economists suggest that while affordability has improved due to lower rates and prices, many households are waiting for further economic clarity before committing. (Source: Bank of Canada, Canadian Mortgage Trends)
🔄 What’s Changing — and What’s Not
Prices are at a 5-year low, providing the most accessible entry points for first-time buyers in years.
Inventory is at its highest in a decade for this time of year, with nearly 18,000 active listings.
Time on market has increased by an average of 8 days compared to last year, meaning buyers don't have to rush their decisions.
Consumer sentiment remains cautious despite better rates, largely due to broader economic uncertainty.
⚖️ Buyer vs. Seller Strategy
For Buyers:
You have the choice and the power. Take your time to establish your budget and shop with confidence.
Don't be afraid to include conditions; your negotiating power should allow for them.
Note: In pockets like Durham Region, you may still encounter multiple offers, though they are far less common.
For Sellers:
Price is everything. In this market, your pricing strategy is more important than your promotion.
This doesn't mean underpricing—it means understanding market value relative to your active competition.
Preparation and "The 3 Ps" (Preparation, Pricing, Promotion) are vital to standing out in a crowded field.
🔮 Quick Verdict
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📞 Get our family working for yours
The last five years have been a whirlwind of challenges and opportunities. A cookie-cutter approach simply doesn't work in a market this nuanced. Whether you are navigating a firm buyer's market in the city or balanced conditions in Durham, we tailor our strategy to meet your specific goals.
👉 Reach out today. Let’s build a custom plan to help you navigate this market with confidence.
📌 Supporting Sources
TRREB Market Watch (January 2026): https://trreb.ca/market-data/market-watch/
Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcement: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/
Big Bank Rate Forecasts: https://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/big-bank-rate-forecasts/
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